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Picks are likelier to be dealt than kept, as a “very strong inertia” has been replaced by complex models and frenzied swapping.

On Thursday night, the Chicago Bears will make the first of many picks in the N.F.L. draft that have something in common: They originally belonged to someone else.

Percent of Draft Picks Traded at Least Once

The Bears’ pick — expected to be U.S.C. quarterback Caleb Williams — was acquired last year as part of a blockbuster deal in which Chicago also got receiver D.J. Moore and three other draft picks.

That trade is part of an increasing draft-night trend in the pursuit of “draft capital.” As teams become much more sophisticated in their understanding of how much a draft pick is worth, particularly in later rounds, draft picks have become increasingly common as deal-sweeteners, or to round out intricate trade packages.

In one sign of how firmly this ethos has taken root in today’s N.F.L.: In last year’s draft, for the fifth time since 2017, more picks were traded away than were used by their original team.

In a trade emblematic of the trend, consider the circuitous route of the 230th pick in last year’s draft. That pick had changed hands five times, starting in 2020, before coming to the Buffalo Bills.

The Path of the Jets’ 2023 7th-Round Pick

Oct. 19, 2020
Traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With: Steve McLendon, DT
For: 2022 6th-round pick
March 15, 2023
Traded to the Houston Texans
With: Shaq Mason, G
For: 2023 6th-round pick
April 28, 2023
Traded to the Philadelphia Eagles
With: 2023 3rd-round pick; 2023 6th-round pick
For: 2023 2nd-round pick
April 29, 2023
Traded to the Houston Texans
With: 2023 7th-round pick
For: 2023 6th-round pick
April 29, 2023
Traded to the Buffalo Bills
With: 2024 6th-round pick
For: 2023 6th-round pick
April 29, 2023
Used by the Buffalo Bills to draft Nick Broeker
Nick Broeker was released by the Bills
before the 2023 season started

Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart vs. Today

Draft Pick 1990s “Jimmy Johnson” Trade Value Chart 2024 “Analytics” Trade Value ChartRound 1 – Pick 1 3000 3000Round 1 – Pick 3 2200 1542Round 1 – Pick 21 800 783Round 2 – Pick 1 580 540Round 3 – Pick 1 265 234Round 4 – Pick 1 116 102Round 5 – Pick 1 44 48Round 6 – Pick 1 27 24Round 7 – Pick 1 14 9

Source: ProSportsTransactions.com

Rich Hill’s 2024 trade chart is an example of a trade chart calculated with recent draft data, though many varying modern trade charts exist. Values for the Jimmy Johnson chart taken from ProFootballReference

Picks Swapped Per Trade

1970s & 1980s
1990s & 2000s
2010s & 2020s

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