Will Hamas Say No?

Israel and Hamas have been talking for months about a deal to release the hostages held in Gaza and to halt the war there. Today, I’ll explain why they haven’t agreed on a renewed cease-fire — and what will determine whether they do.

At times, Israel has been a reluctant negotiator. It has been hesitant to withdraw its troops, free more Palestinian prisoners or allow Gazans to return to their homes — or what remains of them — in the north.

But American officials said that in recent weeks Israel had made several major concessions. Now Hamas seems like the reluctant party. It has not embraced the Israeli compromises, frustrating American attempts to stop, at least temporarily, the war in Gaza.

A holdout

The negotiations have real consequences: For weeks, Israel has said it is preparing to invade Rafah, where around one million Palestinian civilians and thousands of Hamas fighters have taken refuge. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, pledged yesterday to strike Rafah with or without a hostage deal. Thousands more civilians could die.

But some involved in the discussions — Americans, Egyptians and Qataris have been mediating — worry that Hamas appears willing to sacrifice even more Palestinian civilians. Its officials believe that the deaths in Gaza erode support for Israel around the world.

Americans do not want Israel to strike Rafah with a major ground offensive, at least not without a better plan to protect civilians. A hostage agreement appears to be the best way to at least delay such an operation.